I was recently asked by a Polish venture capitalist what my thoughts were on a recession occurring in the Polish economy and if so what the timing and depth of it would be.
The short answer on the timing of the recession that I am predicting is right after the national elections in 2015, though I do believe the cracks are starting to show. With the recent 50 basis point interest rate cut, the nomenklatura see it too and are trying to put a “bandage on a gunshot wound” ahead of next year’s elections. Hopefully this coming recession lasts two to three years at most and is accompanied by a changing of the political guard. But, if Polish politics follow the trend of most of Europe—that of Brussels-led socialism—then it will look more like a lost generation (like Japan) and the likes of which the U.S. and parts of the E.U. are embarking upon. In this case the coming recession will last closer to ten years than two or three. Politics matter.